48 hours is a very long time for Migration Assistant to be showing "Completing Transfer". Although transferring 2.7 million files can take a considerable amount of time, I would be reluctant to keep waiting indefinitely.
Apple does acknowledge that large transfers can take hours and may occasionally appear to pause. However, I would suggest checking whether your Mac is still actively working before deciding what to do next.
Here is what I would recommend:
1. Check whether the transfer is still progressing
If the progress bar is still moving, that is encouraging, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the transfer is making meaningful progress.
If possible, check whether the number of files transferred is increasing. If it has remained at 2.7 million for several hours, that would be a reason for concern.
2. Keep the Mac connected to power
If you decide to keep waiting a little longer, make sure the MacBook Air is connected to its charger. Leave the external Time Machine drive connected, and avoid putting the Mac to sleep or disconnecting anything.
3. If it appears stuck, I would consider restarting the migration
After 48 hours, if there has been no meaningful progress for several hours, I would be inclined to stop waiting and investigate.
I would not immediately force a shutdown unless the Mac is unresponsive. If Migration Assistant is still responding, use its available cancellation or exit option if possible.
A restart may be necessary if it has become completely unresponsive.
4. Check the Time Machine backup before trying again
The good news is that your Time Machine backup should remain intact on the external drive. Migration Assistant does not erase the original backup when transferring data to a new Mac.
If the migration fails, you can try again using the same backup.
Before doing so, I would check:
Whether the external drive is healthy and working properly.
Whether the USB-C cable and connection are reliable.
Whether the backup contains a very large amount of data.
Whether the new Mac has enough available storage for everything being transferred.
5. Contact Apple Support if it happens again
If a second migration also gets stuck at "Completing Transfer", I would contact Apple Support rather than repeatedly restarting the process.
You have a brand-new MacBook Air (M5, 2026), and Apple should be able to help determine whether this is a migration issue, a problem with the backup, or a software issue.
You can find Apple's official guidance here:
Restore your Mac from a backup - Apple Support
My personal recommendation would be to give it a little more time only if you can see genuine progress. If it has been sitting at the same number of files for many hours, I would stop waiting and investigate.
One important question:
When you say it has been going for 48 hours, is the progress bar actually moving forward, even very slowly, or has it remained in exactly the same position for the last several hours?
That would help determine whether I would continue waiting or recommend stopping the migration.
Apple's own guidance confirms that large migrations can take hours, but it does not suggest that a 48-hour completion phase is expected.